Benefiting From The Bye Articles | Gambling

By: Richard Bleuze

It’s hard not to feel a bit overwhelmed at times by all the stats and figures that go hand and hand with being a sports bettor. Just for fun, try remembering what it was like waiting for a big weekend of NFL and college football games to kickoff when the only thing you had to help get you ready was the back page of the local newspaper and a good, opinionated conversation with some friends.

For today’s fan, technology rules the day and especially for those interested in wagering on sports, we wouldn’t have it any other way. Injury reports that get as specific as to how hard a player practiced, trends that split performances up according to the tide; there are even details on which way the rest of the world’s money is going on a matchup, just in case you hadn’t already started second guessing your gut instinct.

It is the best of times, it is the worst of times and sometimes, the best strategy is to step back and have a look at the big picture. One of the more dominant angles in today’s trend-lines involves bye weeks, which started in Week 4 and run up until Week 10. There are a handful of pre- and post-bye angles on all 32 NFL teams to help you with side wagers, not to mention the Over/Under trends, but while many of these situations will even out in the wash there is one strategy worth knowing that has paid off quite nicely over the long-term.

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Take a look at the first eight teams of 2007 to have a bye week. Jacksonville, New Orleans, Tennessee and Washington took Week 4 off while Cincinnati, Minnesota,Oakland and Philadelphia had a break in Week 5.

Counting training camp and preseason, these teams have been hard at work for close to three straight months up until now, with the exception of their bye week. Chances are good that a few aches and pains did not fully heal during the extra days of rest but these warriors planned for this and are back on the field, ready to play some football.

Look for these teams to put on their best performances of the season during the next few weeks. The timing of those early bye weeks came at an almost perfect spot and history shows that these teams will move towards their peak in the four to six weeks following the break. The downside for these early bye teams is that by about Week 15, injuries, conditioning, and the wear and tear of the season could start catching up.

The Raiders are a good example from last year. Oakland was 0-5 SU/ATS in the final five weeks of the season, following a 6-1 ATS mark that started in Week 6. Kansas City is another good team to look at. The Chiefs did win their final two games of `06 to make it into the playoffs but the two factors that standout here are that their Week 16 win was over the (2-12) Raiders and their Week 17 win was their first home start since the passing of the team’s owner, Lamar Hunt. It was an emotional 35-30 win over Jacksonville and the Chiefs played with true spirit. Before these two wins the Chiefs were 1-5 ATS in Week 10-15.

And perhaps the best case to support this theory is the Dallas Cowboys. Dallas was 6-3 ATS following their Week 3 bye before closing the season with an ugly 2-3 SU/1-4 ATS mark that included home losses to Philadelphia and Detroit. Fittingly, Dallas lost in the Wild Card round of the playoffs when Tony Romo snoozed through the snap on a chip shot field goal. Guess he couldn’t wait to get home.

There are no magic tricks involved with this kind of handicapping; it’s just a sound approach that relies on common sense a bit more than it does statistics. Take a look at this week’s card and maybe you can spot a matchup for one of these teams that looks solid.

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