Why Underdogs Are the Smart Bet in the NFL Articles | Gambling

By: Richard Bleuze

Why Underdogs Are the Smart Bet in the NFL

If you want to make money betting on the NFL, then betting the underdogs is the best way to make money in the NFL.  Below are a few reasons why underdogs are the smart bet in the NFL.    

The NFL has made the teams roughly equal during the past few years.  Generally, you do not see a runaway teams from the prior year getting to the Super Bowl.  As an example, look at these SuperBowl teams from the past several years:  St. Louis in 2000, Baltimore in 2001, New England in 2002, Tampa Bay in 2003, Carolina in 2004 and the Giants in 2007.  Despite these teams having losing records the year before, they all made it to the Super Bowl the year after their losing season.  

In the NFL, big leads often dwindle, with underdogs covering late in the game.

Generally, underdogs do not get much respect from the betting public.  This  sometimes leads to higher than deserved spreads. Research shows that underdogs are poised for an upset in the covering the spread.  

Generally, the sports bettors love the favorites; oftentimes pushing lines unreasonably high.  With a little research, you can spot teams that should be favorites but are getting points against a popular team that has been installed as a favorite due to the public bandwagon effect.  
 
Generally, many sports bettors do not have the courage to go with certain underdogs.  Most sports bettors have formed an opinion about how horrible some teams are based and have a preconceived notion that the team will be beaten by the favorite.  However, with a little reseach based on the statistical data and situational research, some undervalued dogs can be spotted each week.  In addition, you will find that many favorites under-perform facing an underdog team in preparation for a tougher team the following week.  This creates a reliable upset scenario.  In addition, many sports bettors can not stomach backing really bad teams.  Thus, you get extra line value and the best bets available on the underdog NFL team.

Historically, 84% of the time, the team that covers the spread also wins.  Armed with this knowledge, if you have underdogs that you really like based on the right research, you can take them to win straight-up (money line), collecting anywhere from 1.2 to 4 times your original bet.

Playing the NFL money line can be a great way to enhance your gambling winnings during the NFL football season.  Because it is much easier to pick the winner of an NFL football game than it is to predict both the winner and the final margin of victory, making a winning wager using the NFL money line is much easier than using the NFL point spread. 

You can make money betting the NFL underdogs using the money line since your potential return on each dollar wagered using the NFL money line can vary quite a bit depending on the situation compared to a point spread.

When using the money line to make a wager, you should focus on underdogs because of the higher payoff they offer.  If you do not consider underdogs in you betting, you rob yourself of higher potential returns on individual wagers.  However, please keep in mind that no NFL game should be wagered on unless it provides a good betting opportunity.

I suggest that you also consider the following formula when using the money line to bet on the underdogs:

Win % = Amount Risked / (Amount Risked + Amount of Win)

In this formula, Win % represents the percentage of wagers you must win at a specific money line level in order to breakeven over time.

Thus, if you were to wager on an underdog at +200, this would require you to lay $100 to win $200, the required Win% would be:

Win % = 100(100 + 200)
Win % = 33.3%

So theoretically, if you have the ability to forecast the winner of an NFL game at a success rate higher than the required Win %, then that game offers you a betting opportunity with a positive return expected on your wager.

Once you have found a betting opportunity, you should then determine the appropriate amount to wager on the game.  Thus, you need to consider the  varying payouts that go along with the money line.  Of course, over the course of the NFL season, you will win more of your wagers on favorites than on underdogs, but because the return is less, you need to wager more money on the favorites in order to maintain an overall net winning position throughout the football season than you do betting on the NFL underdogs.  The following example will help clarify this point.

Assume that one week during the NFL football season you wager $100 each on two favorites at -230 and -250 and one underdog at +200. If the two favorites win and the underdog loses you will win approximately $83.50 combined on the favorites, however, you will have lost $100 on the underdog.  Thus, a net loss.   That is why it is not only a matter of knowing which NFL team to wager on, but how much to wager on them, that determines your ultimate betting success during the NFL season.  

The fact that your individual wagers on favorites will be more than on underdogs, you will first need to decide what your standard NFL money line wager on underdogs should be.  I suggest using ½ your standard wager on pro football games versus the NFL point spread.  The resulting wager amount will allow you to increase the dollar amount of your wagers on favorites without risking too much of your bankroll all at once. 

Determining the amount to wager on a favorite will change depending on what the NFL money line is for the specific favorite you are considering.  Using the following formula, you can easily calculate the correct wager amount for favorites:   

Wager Amount = (Underdog Standard Wager Amount)/100 x Money line

For example, if you normally wager $100 per game using the NFL point spread, then using the ½ rule for the NFL money line, you would wager $50 on an underdog which would mean wagering ½ the money line on a favorite.

Wager Amount = 50/100 x Money line = 0.5 x Money line

If a favorite is -250 you would wager $125 (0.5 x 250)

If you use the above, and win two out of three you will be a net winner.  You should follow this strategy throughout the NFL season, making your predetermined standard NFL money line wager on underdogs and using the formula above to determine the amount to wager on favorites.  If you stay true to your strategy of wagering only on those NFL games that offer a good betting opportunity based on the required win % and your ability to pick winners in particular game situations, you will come out a winner at the end of the NFL season.

Unlike equal wager amounts that are used in the NFL point spread and only offer equal returns, the NFL money line offers varying returns requiring wagers of different sizes in order to remain profitable.  However, the ability to pick straight winners can make playing the NFL money line a great way to enhance the total return on your pro football gambling throughout the NFL football season.

Just remember, with the right research, you can spot some very high-value underdog winners each week to increase your bankroll.

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