How Often Does The Road Team Win In Baseball Articles | Gambling

By: Richard Bleuze

How often does the road team win in baseball.

Well, more often than you might think the road team in baseball will win.  About 43% of the time!  That is why it is often a good move to wagering on the run line in Major League Baseball.

First off, what is the run line?

Unlike football and basketball in which pointspreads are used to determine the winners and losers of wagers, in baseball it is either the money line or run line in general.  Baseball has historically been a sport in which bettors merely wager on which team will win the game.  As the perceived difference between two competing baseball teams grows, money line odds are used to "equalize" the chances of a bettor showing a profit over the long run.    A few sports books, like 5Dimes, feature a "ten cents line".  An example of a "ten cents line" is when you lay $105 to win $100 on the team you think will win the game.  A team that is more moderately favored might be priced as a -130 favorite in which case you would wager $130 to win $100. If you bet on the opponent, the underdog, you would wager $100 to win $120.  As the price of the favorite rises, the "spread" between the favorite and underdog baseball team prices also increases.  An example of this is when a favorite is -200, the underdog often returns +180. 

Run line bet attempts to introduce the pointspread element found in basketball and football betting to a limited degree.  The run line wager involves the laying or taking of one and a half runs with a corresponding adjustment in the price.  When you wager on a favorite and lay the run line you are wagering that the favorite will win by two runs or more.  On the other hand, a wager on the underdog at plus a run and a half means that you are wagering on the underdog to either win the game straight up or lose the game by exactly one run. 

The price adjustments in run line wagering depend upon whether the baseball team favored is at home or on the road.  As a general, a larger adjustment occurs for home favorites since they will often only get at bats in 8 innings if they have the lead after the visiting team hits in the ninth.  If the home team trails or is tied in the middle of the ninth inning the odds that they will win the game by more than one run are greatly reduced.  The road team  ALWAYS bats in the top of the ninth inning regardless of the score.  Thus, it is easier for the road team to win by more than a run in a tight  baseball game.  In the ninth inning and in extra innings the road team can score a number of runs since they continue to bat until there are three outs.

In my opinion, playing the run line and converting a favorite into an underdog makes great sense.  The only way that the sports bettor is hurt is when you lay the run line and convert a favorite into an underdog is when that favorite WINS BY EXACTLY ONE RUN! In all other situations you are generally benefitted.  If the favorite wins by 2 runs or more,  the sports bettor will generally win more than if the sports bettor had just played the game straight.  If that favorite does lose the game you would generally lose less  thanif you had played the straight bet.  Only if the favorite wins by exactly one run is the sports bettor hurt by playing the run line.  In such an instance, the straight bettor wins while the bettor who laid the run line loses.

However, please remember that when the underdog loses, as they are expected to do, you LOSE MORE by taking the run line than by playing the team straight. When the underdog baseball team pulls the upset and wins you WIN LESS by taking the run line.

The central questions, however, that need to be asked and answered are "How often do favorites win by exactly 1 run?" and "How often do favorites win by 2 runs or more"?

You might consider the following chart below to answer the questions based on past years: 

Percentage of games which produce
the following Result . . . . .        HOME FAVORITES    ROAD FAVORITES
-----------------------------------              --------------                   --------------
Win by 2 Runs or More                     39.1 %                       43.6 %

Win by Exactly 1 Run                        18.4 %                       11.6 %

Lose by Exactly 1 Run                     11.0 %                        16.4 %

Lose by 2 Runs or More                  31.5 %                        28.5 %

What you get from the above chart is that although between 28% and 30% of all games are decided by 1 run, ONLY those in which the FAVORITE WINS BY 1 RUN have an impact of the result of betting the run Line!

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