Learning How To Follow Streaks In Baseball Articles | Gambling

By: Richard Bleuze

Sports bettors look at streaks for the same reason investors look at stock performance.   When a team has won several games in a row, sports bettors anticipate that they will keep winning, in just the same way that investors expect a stock to keep rising when it has experienced steady growth for several periods.   And when a team is losing, sports bettors expect them to lose.   In sports gambling, as in any form of investing, we are trying to ascertain whether the public has correctly evaluated the team.

Below is what I've found regarding streaks in baseball when I bet:

RULE #1: Play a 0-3 team when the other team won its last game.

 A team on an 0-3 slide has a better than 50% chance of beating a team which won its last game.  How is that possible?   It's easy to understand.   All other things being equal, any team has a 50% chance of beating another team.   A team on a three-game losing skid in not necessarily an inferior team at all; they have essentially the same chance to win as any other team.   But, the fact that they have lost three games in a row convinces sports bettors that they are, in fact, an inferior team and so deserves to be underdogs.

However, the facts say otherwise.   A 0-3 team is no more likely to lose than any other team.   As the betting public wrongly piles onto the team coming off a win, the value in betting on the underdog climbs higher and higher.  That's what makes this such a winning strategy!

RULE #2: Play against 0-3 team when the opponent lost its last game.

If both teams are coming off a loss, we know this is the start of a new series.   If this was game two or three of the series, at least one of the teams would be coming off a win.   If the 0-3 team was swept in its last series. There may be motivational problems which makes them especially vulnerable.   It may be that a team which was just swept is particularly unmotivated.  In addition, they may under-estimate a team which is also coming off a loss.  However, teams that are coming off a loss tend to play harder because they want to avoid one or two losses turning into a losing streak.  That makes them particularly dangerous, and so a good wager.

RULE #3: Wager on 0-3 pitcher when opponent won last game.

I've found that a 0-3 pitcher did indeed win about 50% of the the time.  But the betting public was so skeptical of the 0-3 pitcher, they did not value them at even odds.

RULE #4: Bet against 0-3 pitcher when opponent lost last game.

Why is this?  I think that it is because the opponent does not want a one- or two-game losing streak to stretch any further, and plays with that much more intensity

I've found that a 0-3 pitcher has a significantly lower chance of winning game four when they face a pitcher coming off a loss.   In fact, the 0-3 pitcher is in only a 43% chance of the win.

In conclusion, following streaks in baseball helps you uncover teams and pitchers that are performing poorly of late.  Baseball should be a money maker for most sports bettors.  However, I'm really surprised that not more sports bettors place bets on the game of baseball since you can use streaks to find a 50/50 bet for less than even money. 

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