Betting the Underdogs in Baseball Articles | Gambling

By: Richard Bleuze

Betting the Underdogs in Baseball

Major League Baseball season is longer than any other sport and playing back-to-back games is the rule, rather than the exception.  Thus, with so many games on the schedule for a MLB team, it is both physically and mentally impossible for a team to be motivated for every single game, which is one reason why the top teams win around 60 percent of their games, while the worst teams will generally win around 40 percent of their games.

Thus, baseball bettors should remember the above and bet accordingly.  However, for most baseball bettors, the urge to bet the favorite is often too tempting to pass up.  Especially since the favorite is "supposed" to win, while the underdog is "supposed" to lose.

A favorite when betting the MLB baseball team is -150.  If the team you are considering placing a bet has -150, then it is most probability going to win at least two out of three games in the long run. 

However, the oddsmakers know that the majority of baseball bettors are going to back the favorite, and they will adjust for that fact.

In a study conducted a few years back, it was found that the favorites won at a healthy 58.3-percentage clip.  Thus, baseball bettors who backed only the favorites would lose four times as much as a baseball bettor who backed only the underdogs.

Thus, what should you look for when betting the underdogs?

1.  In the study, underdogs performed well when coming off a victory and scored 10 or more runs in their victory and in the first game of a series.  However, underdogs did not perform as well as the divisional underdogs.

2.  In addition, underdogs as a rule showed a slight profit after a game that the underdogs had been shut out.  This would make sense since the oddsmakers would force the backers of the favorite to lay a little extra against a team struggling to score runs.

In conclusion, the study shows that a baseball bettor is not going to make money backing every favorite or every underdog.  However, it does show that under the right situtation underdogs can make you a profit during the MLB baseball season.

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